An Updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins

1999 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 326-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
John Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Prediction Scheme

scholarly journals Passive-Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 613-635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Jones ◽  
Daniel Cecil ◽  
Mark DeMaria
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Prediction Scheme

Abstract The formulation and testing of an enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) using new predictors derived from passive microwave imagery is presented. Passive microwave imagery is acquired for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins between 1995 and 2003. Predictors relating to the inner-core (within 100 km of center) precipitation and convective characteristics of tropical cyclones are derived. These predictors are combined with the climatological and environmental predictors used by SHIPS in a simple linear regression model with change in tropical cyclone intensity as the predictand. Separate linear regression models are produced for forecast intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h from the time of a microwave sensor overpass. Analysis of the resulting models indicates that microwave predictors, which provide an intensification signal to the model when above-average precipitation and convective signatures are present, have comparable importance to vertical wind shear and SST-related predictors. The addition of the microwave predictors produces a 2%–8% improvement in performance for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecasts out to 72 h when compared with an environmental-only model trained from the same sample. Improvement is also observed when compared against the current version of SHIPS. The improvement in both basins is greatest for substantially intensifying or weakening tropical cyclones. Improvement statistics are based on calculating the forecast error for each tropical cyclone while it is held out of the training sample to approximate the use of independent data.

scholarly journals Further Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 531-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
Michelle Mainelli ◽  
Lynn K. Shay ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
John Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
East Pacific ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Prediction Scheme

Abstract Modifications to the Atlantic and east Pacific versions of the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for each year from 1997 to 2003 are described. Major changes include the addition of a method to account for the storm decay over land in 2000, the extension of the forecasts from 3 to 5 days in 2001, and the use of an operational global model for the evaluation of the atmospheric predictors instead of a simple dry-adiabatic model beginning in 2001. A verification of the SHIPS operational intensity forecasts is presented. Results show that the 1997–2003 SHIPS forecasts had statistically significant skill (relative to climatology and persistence) out to 72 h in the Atlantic, and at 48 and 72 h in the east Pacific. The inclusion of the land effects reduced the intensity errors by up to 15% in the Atlantic, and up to 3% in the east Pacific, primarily for the shorter-range forecasts. The inclusion of land effects did not significantly degrade the forecasts at any time period. Results also showed that the 4–5-day forecasts that began in 2001 did not have skill in the Atlantic, but had some skill in the east Pacific. An experimental version of SHIPS that included satellite observations was tested during the 2002 and 2003 seasons. New predictors included brightness temperature information from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) channel 4 (10.7 μm) imagery, and oceanic heat content (OHC) estimates inferred from satellite altimetry observations. The OHC estimates were only available for the Atlantic basin. The GOES data significantly improved the east Pacific forecasts by up to 7% at 12–72 h. The combination of GOES and satellite altimetry improved the Atlantic forecasts by up to 3.5% through 72 h for those storms west of 50°W.

scholarly journals The Interaction of Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) with a Warm Ocean Eddy

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (9) ◽  
pp. 2635-2649 ◽  
Author(s):  
I-I. Lin ◽  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
I-Huan Lee ◽  
Chau-Ron Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ocean Mixed Layer ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
Ocean Eddies ◽  
Intensity Prediction

Abstract Understanding the interaction of ocean eddies with tropical cyclones is critical for improving the understanding and prediction of the tropical cyclone intensity change. Here an investigation is presented of the interaction between Supertyphoon Maemi, the most intense tropical cyclone in 2003, and a warm ocean eddy in the western North Pacific. In September 2003, Maemi passed directly over a prominent (700 km × 500 km) warm ocean eddy when passing over the 22°N eddy-rich zone in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Analyses of satellite altimetry and the best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center show that during the 36 h of the Maemi–eddy encounter, Maemi’s intensity (in 1-min sustained wind) shot up from 41 m s−1 to its peak of 77 m s−1. Maemi subsequently devastated the southern Korean peninsula. Based on results from the Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System and satellite microwave sea surface temperature observations, it is suggested that the warm eddies act as an effective insulator between typhoons and the deeper ocean cold water. The typhoon’s self-induced sea surface temperature cooling is suppressed owing to the presence of the thicker upper-ocean mixed layer in the warm eddy, which prevents the deeper cold water from being entrained into the upper-ocean mixed layer. As simulated using the Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System, the incorporation of the eddy information yields an evident improvement on Maemi’s intensity evolution, with its peak intensity increased by one category and maintained at category-5 strength for a longer period (36 h) of time. Without the presence of the warm ocean eddy, the intensification is less rapid. This study can serve as a starting point in the largely speculative and unexplored field of typhoon–warm ocean eddy interaction in the western North Pacific. Given the abundance of ocean eddies and intense typhoons in the western North Pacific, these results highlight the importance of a systematic and in-depth investigation of the interaction between typhoons and western North Pacific eddies.

scholarly journals SHIPS-MI Forecast Analysis of Hurricanes Claudette (2003), Isabel (2003), and Dora (1999)

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Jones ◽  
Daniel J. Cecil
Keyword(s):  
Inner Core ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Prediction Scheme ◽  
Dependent Sample

Abstract Three hurricanes, Claudette (2003), Isabel (2003), and Dora (1999), were selected to examine the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with Microwave Imagery (SHIPS-MI) forecast accuracy for three particular storm types. This research was conducted using model analyses and tropical cyclone best-track data, with forecasts generated from a dependent sample. The model analyses and best-track data are assumed to be a “perfect” representation of the actual event (e.g., perfect prog assumption). Analysis of intensity change forecasts indicated that SHIPS-MI performed best, compared to operational SHIPS output, for tropical cyclones that were intensifying from tropical storm to hurricane intensity. Passive microwave imagery, which is sensitive to the intensity and coverage of precipitation, improved intensity forecasts during these periods with a positive intensity change contribution resulting from above normal inner-core precipitation. Forecast improvement was greatest for 12–36-h forecasts, where the microwave contribution to SHIPS-MI was greatest. Once a storm reached an intensity close to its maximum potential intensity, as in the case of Isabel and Dora, both SHIPS and SHIPS-MI incorrectly forecast substantial weakening despite the positive contribution from microwave data. At least in Dora’s case, SHIPS-MI forecasts were slightly stronger than those of SHIPS. Other important contributions to SHIPS-MI forecasts were examined to determine their importance relative to the microwave inputs. Inputs related to sea surface temperature (SST) and persistence–climatology proved to be very important to intensity change forecasts, as expected. These predictors were the primary factor leading to the persistent weakening forecasts made by both models for Isabel and Dora. For Atlantic storms (Claudette and Isabel), the contribution from shear also proved important at characterizing the conduciveness of the environment toward intensification. However, the shear contribution was often small as a result of multiple offsetting shear-related predictors. Finally, it was observed that atmospheric parameters not included in SHIPS, such as eddy momentum flux, could substantially affect the intensity, leading to large forecast errors. This was especially true for the Claudette intensity change forecasts throughout its life cycle.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document